[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 17 10:22:43 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 71/6
COMMENT: Solar X-ray and radio flux remain very low. Active region
AR1006 in the NW solar quadrant was newly numbered today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11121101
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 2 21120100
Camden 2 11120101
Canberra 2 01120100
Hobart 2 11121100
Casey(Ant) 5 22221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2332 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 4 Quiet
18 Oct 4 Quiet
19 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has declined to nominal levels. The
Bz component of the IMF sustained mild negative bias for much
of the UT day. The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated
unsettled intervals at high latitudes only. Expect mostly quiet
geomagnetic conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Indian Ocean region moderately depressed after local
dawn. N Aus region depressed to 20% local day, with mild depressions
extending to central Aus latitudes. Expect mostly normal propagation
conditions next three days but continuing variable conditions
Equatorial/PNG/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 29800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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