[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 18 10:44:24 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
levels today as well. The solar wind speed remained between
290 and 310 km/s and the Bz component of the IMF stayed close
to the normal value almost the whole day today. Solar activity
and solar wind conditions are expected to remain at nearly
similar levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11112011
Darwin 3 21111011
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 3 21012101
Camden 2 12012001
Canberra 1 00012000
Hobart 2 11012000
Casey(Ant) 6 23212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 7 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2112 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 4 Quiet
19 Oct 4 Quiet
20 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay at quiet
levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUF depressions on low latitudes continued today
as well. Weak ionospheric ionisation due to continued very
low level of solar activity seems to be the reason for these
depressions. Conditions on mid and high latitudes remained
mostly normal for the day. Simiar HF conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days as no significant variations
in the geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions are expected
during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed upto around 60% during local day,
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Oct -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Oct -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly near
normal levels across most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the
next three days with the possibility of minor to moderate
degradations in conditions and some MUF depressions in the
the northern parts of this region due to weak ionospheric
ionisation due to continued very low levels of solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 20000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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