[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 16 10:27:17 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar X-ray and radio flux remain very low. Solar wind
speed has declined to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 23212111
Darwin 8 23213-12
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 7 23222112
Camden 4 13211101
Canberra 5 23211101
Hobart 5 23212101
Casey(Ant) 7 32322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1012 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 4 Quiet
17 Oct 4 Quiet
18 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has declined to nominal levels. The
Bz component of the IMF sustained mild negative bias at times
during the first half of the UT day, resulting in brief periods
of unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Otherwise conditions remained
quiet. Expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
17 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values
18 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Indian Ocean region moderately depressed after local
dawn. N Aus region depressed to 30% 15-18UT. Expect mostly normal
propagation conditions next three days but continuing variable
conditions Equatorial/PNG regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 18600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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