[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 15 10:31:07 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Some brightening observed on the east limb, northern
solar hemisphere. Solar wind speed continued to decline slowly
over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21211111
Darwin 4 21211111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 11212211
Camden 3 11211111
Canberra 2 11211100
Hobart 4 11221111
Casey(Ant) 9 33322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3322 1312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 5 Quiet
16 Oct 4 Quiet
17 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline gradually over
the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF sustained mild negative
bias during the first half of the UT day, resulting in periods
of unsettled geomagnetic conditions at high latitudes only.
Conditions remained quiet at low and mid latitudes. Expect
mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
16 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
17 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional HF conditions moderately improved. Equatorial/N
Aus regions remain variable with widespread minor depressions
after local dawn. Periods of intense sporadic-E observed Scott
Base. Expect improving conditions most Aus regions but continuing
variable conditions Equatorial/PNG regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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