[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 10 10:51:39 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The solar wind fluctuated around 290 and 330 km/s and
is expected to remain at this speed today, 10 October. SOHO EIT
images indicate that the recurrent coronal hole may return tomorrow
11 October and extend to 12 October with an elevated solar wind
speed expected of about 600 km/s at peak. San Vito and Holloman
Solar Observatories report a spot at about S08W03. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly northward
at approximately 2 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 2 21100001
Camden 1 10100011
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 01100011
Casey(Ant) 4 22310011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 4 Quiet
11 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
12 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Expect an increase in geomagnetic activity on 11 and
12 October due to an increase in the solar wind speed. As a result
expect unsettled conditions with a isolated active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect the equatorial and north Australian region to
have slightly depressed conditions over next three days due to
low ionoisation in the ionosphere resulting from very low solar
activity. South Australia and the Antarctic region may have mild
depression on 12 October due to geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 22600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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