[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 9 10:07:21 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar wind decreased from 420 to 320 km/s and is
expected to remain around this speed for the next three days.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was
mostly northward at approximately 2 nT. The visible solar disk
is spotless at this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 12100001
Darwin 2 12100002
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 2 12000002
Camden 1 12000001
Canberra 1 12000001
Hobart 2 12100001
Casey(Ant) 7 24310111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 0000 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 4 Quiet
10 Oct 4 Quiet
11 Oct 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Oct 2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Oct 2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect the equatorial and north Australian region to
have slightly depressed conditions over next three days due to
low ionoisation in the ionosphere resulting from very low solar
activity. An extended period of sporadic E was noted at Cocos Is.
between 04-08 UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 47200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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