[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 11 10:42:05 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels today.
The solar wind speed remained between 300 and 330 km/s and
the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained close to the normal value for most parts of the
UT day today. Solar wind stream may get strengthened on 12 and
13 October due to an expected effect of a recurrent coronal hole.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 12111102
Darwin 3 12111102
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 11111202
Camden 2 11111101
Canberra 2 11111101
Hobart 2 11111101
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 6 Quiet
12 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled with some possibility of isolated
active periods.
13 Oct 14 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may show some enhancements on
12 and 13 October due to an expected strengthening of the
solar wind stream as a recurrent coronal hole takes geoeffective
position around this time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs were observed on low
latitudes on 10 October, possibly due to a very weak
ionospheric ionisation as the solar activity continued
to remain at very low levels. Similar HF conditions may
be expected on low latitudes for the next thee days. Some
degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions are also
possible on mid and high latitude locations on 12 and 13
October due to an expected rise in the geomagnetic conditions
on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Oct -14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Oct -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and MUF depressions may be observed across northern Aus/NZ
regions for the next three days due to low ionisation in
the ionosphere as the solar activity continues to remain at
very low levels and also due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on 12 and 13 October. Minor to moderate
degradations in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may also
be possible in the southern parts of Aus/NZ regions on 12 and
13 October due to the expected enhancements in the geomagnetic
activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 18500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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