[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 2 09:25:22 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is spotless at this time. The
Ace spacecraft showed the solar wind to steadily increase from
500 km/s to 600 km/s on 01 October. It expected that it will
remain elevated for the next three days. The interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between +8/-6 nT with no significant period
of southward or the northward orientation dominating.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 22322322
Darwin 7 21222312
Townsville 10 22323322
Learmonth 10 22323322
Camden 7 12222322
Canberra 7 12222322
Hobart 8 12322322
Casey(Ant) 13 3-432232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 48 (Unsettled)
Gnangara 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 71 (Active)
Hobart 92 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0000 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions are expected for the next three
days with isolated cases of active to minor storm levels possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: There is likely to be mild depressions in the South
Australian and Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic activity,
as well as mild depressions in the North Australian and Equitorial
regions due to low ionisation levels in the ionosphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
Not available at this time.
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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