[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 1 09:53:34 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The Ace spacecraft showed the solar wind to steadily
increase from 350 km/s to just under 500 km/s on 30 September
commencing at approximately 1300 UT. It expected that it will
remain elevated at this level for the next three days. However,
today 1 October is expected to have the most geomagnetic activity
due to an expected southward oriented Bz.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11101223
Darwin 5 11102223
Townsville 8 12212233
Learmonth 5 11102322
Camden 5 01101233
Canberra 5 01001233
Hobart 3 01101222
Casey(Ant) 9 33311222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0021 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 35 Active to Minor storm
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 28 September
and is current for interval 29 September to 1 October. Active
levels are expected today with isolated occurrences of minor
storm levels possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: There is likely to be mild depressions in the South
Australian and Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 60600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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