[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 3 09:42:00 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is spotless at this time. The
Ace spacecraft showed the solar wind to increase from 550 km/s
to 700 km/s on 02 October. It expected that it will remain elevated
for the next three days. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
between +/-5 nT with no significant period of southward or the
northward orientation dominating.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 23333222
Darwin 11 23333222
Townsville 11 23233232
Learmonth 14 --334232
Camden 11 23333222
Canberra 11 23333222
Hobart 12 13334222
Casey(Ant) 15 -5-32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Camden 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1121 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions are expected for the next three
days with isolated cases of active to minor storm levels possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: There is likely to be mild depressions in the South
Australian and Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic activity,
as well as mild depressions in the North Australian and Equitorial
regions due to low ionisation levels in the ionosphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 206000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list