[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 25 10:30:37 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. The solar wind speed is slightly
below normal levels and is expected to remain so most of today.
The Earth is expected to enter a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a recurrent coronal hole late on 25 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 2 1-200011
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 1 11000001
Camden 1 11000010
Canberra 0 10100000
Hobart 1 11100000
Casey(Ant) 5 23121111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1200 0110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 5 Quiet
26 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to increase from quiet to
quiet-unsettled conditions late 25 Nov to 26 Nov due to a recurrent
high speed solar wind stream. Isolated Active periods possible,
particularly at high latitudes. Elevated geomagnetic activity
should last for two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov -40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Nov -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Nov -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 23 November
and is current for interval 24-26 November. Continuing depressed
conditions expected for equatorial and north Australian regions;
probable cause is very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 12900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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