[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 26 10:13:24 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. A Corotating Interaction Region
(CIR) associated with a recurrent coronal hole wind stream produced
some large fluctuations in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) early in the UT day. Solar wind speed increased steadily
over the first half of the UT day to just under 600km/s. Elevated
solar wind speeds expected next 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Unsettled with Active
periods.
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 34333222
Darwin 14 34323323
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 19 54333233
Camden 11 33323222
Canberra 12 33323322
Hobart 12 34323222
Casey(Ant) 16 4--43232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 6 Quiet
28 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT:
Large IMF fluctuations associated with a Corotating Interaction
Region (CIR) in the solar wind produced a period of Active
geomagnetic conditions early in the UT day followed by mostly
Unsettled conditions for the remainder. Minor Storm conditions
were observed at high latitudes. Expect geomagnetic activity
to continue at Unsettled levels 26 Nov with some isolated
Active periods at high latitudes. A return to mostly Quiet
conditions expected 27 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Nov -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Nov -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 23 November
and is current for interval 24-26 November. Continuing depressed
ionospheric conditions expected due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 271 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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