[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 24 10:05:18 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. The solar wind speed is slightly
below normal levels and is expected to remain so today. The Earth
is expected to enter a high speed solar wind stream induced by
a recurrent coronal hole on 25 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21110001
Darwin 2 21100011
Townsville 9 222----3
Learmonth 3 31110101
Camden 2 21110001
Canberra 2 21110000
Hobart 2 21110000
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 4 Quiet
25 Nov 12 Unsettled
26 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to increase to unsettled
conditions on 25 November with isolated active periods due to
a recurrent high speed solar wind stream. This elevated geomagnetic
activity should last for two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov -42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Nov -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Nov -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 23 November
and is current for interval 24-26 November. Depressed conditions
expected for equatorial and north Australian regions, probable
cause is very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 282 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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