[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 7 10:31:28 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed has ranged between approximately 
270 and 300 km/s. The later than expected disturbance of solar 
wind parameters should eventuate today. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               1   01100011
      Townsville           4   22111121
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               1   10000011
      Canberra             1   10000011
      Hobart               1   10100010
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov    30    Quiet to unsettled with active to minor storm 
                periods. 
08 Nov    15    Unsettled with isolated active periods. 
09 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 4 November 
and is current for interval 5-8 November. The later than expected 
effects of a recurrent coronal hole should increase geomagnetic 
activity today. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal-poor    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Nov    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted montly values at Vanimo with
      depressions to 30% 14-16 and 22-23 UT. At Niue,
      frequencies were near predicted until 12 UT, then
      15-40% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      At Darwin and Townsville, frequencies were near
      predicted with depressions to 45% at times 11-22 UT.
      At Cocos Is, Brisbane and Norfolk Is., frequencies
      were depressed to 45% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 45% at
      Learmonth 03 and 13-21 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 40% possible at times. 
08 Nov   -25    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 40% possible at times. 
09 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 40% possible at times. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 5 November 
and is current for interval 6-8 November. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 317 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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