[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 7 10:31:28 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has ranged between approximately
270 and 300 km/s. The later than expected disturbance of solar
wind parameters should eventuate today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 1 01100011
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth - --------
Camden 1 10000011
Canberra 1 10000011
Hobart 1 10100010
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 30 Quiet to unsettled with active to minor storm
periods.
08 Nov 15 Unsettled with isolated active periods.
09 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 4 November
and is current for interval 5-8 November. The later than expected
effects of a recurrent coronal hole should increase geomagnetic
activity today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal-poor Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted montly values at Vanimo with
depressions to 30% 14-16 and 22-23 UT. At Niue,
frequencies were near predicted until 12 UT, then
15-40% depressed.
Northern Australian Region:
At Darwin and Townsville, frequencies were near
predicted with depressions to 45% at times 11-22 UT.
At Cocos Is, Brisbane and Norfolk Is., frequencies
were depressed to 45% at times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 45% at
Learmonth 03 and 13-21 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 40% possible at times.
08 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 40% possible at times.
09 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 40% possible at times.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 5 November
and is current for interval 6-8 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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