[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 6 10:28:33 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 69/3 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has ranged between approximately
280 and 380 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to become
disturbed today due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 0 000-----
Camden 0 00101000
Canberra 0 00101000
Hobart 1 11101000
Casey(Ant) 8 33321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 20 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active to minor
periods.
07 Nov 18 Unsettled with isolated active periods.
08 Nov 12 Unsettled with the chance of isolated active
periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 4 November
and is current for interval 5-8 November. The effects of a recurrent
coronal hole are expected to increase geomagnetic activity today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal-poor Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
07 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of 15-50%
observed at Vanimo 00-02, 09-11 and 14-17 UT and at
Niue from 08 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of 15-45%
at Darwin, Cocos. Is, Townsville and Brisbane 10-21 UT
and at Darwin 00-03 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions of
15-45% observed at Canberra and Norfolk Is. 10-17 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values with depressions.
Deeper depressions likely at lower latitudes.
07 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values with depressions.
Deeper depressions likely at lower latitudes.
08 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values with depressions.
Deeper depressions likely at lower latitudes.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 5 November
and is current for interval 6-8 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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