[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 5 10:29:07 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Region 1007 produced a C1.0 flare at 0330 UT. A CME
was observed erupting from the north-west limb around 0354 UT
and may be associated with region 1007. The solar wind speed
has ranged between approximately 300 and 400 km/s. Solar wind
parameters are expected to become disturbed later today due to
the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21100011
Darwin 1 11000002
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 1 11000001
Camden 1 20000011
Canberra 1 10000011
Hobart 1 11100001
Casey(Ant) 7 33211112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 14 Quiet then expected to become unsettled with
isolated active periods later.
06 Nov 30 Unsettled with isolated active to minor storm
periods.
07 Nov 12 Unsettled with isolated active periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 4 November
and is current for interval 5-8 November. The effects of a recurrent
coronal hole are expected to increase geomagnetic activity late
today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Poor-fair Poor-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Poor-fair Poor-fair Normal
06 Nov Poor-fair Poor-fair Fair
07 Nov Poor-fair Poor-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Niue: near predicted with depressions to 50% at times
05, 08-16 and 19-21 UT. Vanimo: near predicted with
depressions to 35% at times 14-17 and 20 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted with depressions to 50% at some
stations during 00-04 and 10-20 UT. At Cocos Is.,
frequencies were near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Frequencies at Christchurch and Hobart were near
predicted monthly values. At Canberra and Learmonth,
frequencies were near predicted with depressions to
30% mostly during 11-18 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values with depressions.
Deeper depressions likely at lower latitudes.
06 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values with depressions.
Deeper depressions likely at lower latitudes.
07 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 56800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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