[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 8 10:49:08 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:Yellow     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: The solar wind speed increased from 300 to 500 km/s 
due to a recurrent coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz component had a southward orientation between 04 and 
09UT and the peak was about -7nT. Active Region 1007 rotated 
off the visible disk and the sun is presently spotless. No xray 
flares occurred 07 November. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   13333223
      Darwin              10   13233223
      Townsville          13   23333233
      Camden              10   13323223
      Canberra            10   13323223
      Hobart              10   12333123
      Casey(Ant)          15   24432224
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               8   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov    12    Unsettled 
09 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Nov     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 4 November 
and is current for interval 5-8 November. There appeared to be 
reconnection between 04-09 UT, 07 November, with the Earth's 
magnetic field due to the southward orientation of the 
interplanetary magnetic field and resulted in geomagnetic 
activity with active levels at high latitudes only. Expect the 
geomagnetic field to have unsettled conditions and isolated cases 
of active levels for the next two days due to an elevated solar 
wind stream. 10 November is expect to return to quiet condition. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Nov     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
09 Nov   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
10 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 5 November 
and is current for interval 6-8 November. Equatorial and northern 
Australian regions may continue to have slightly depressed conditions 
during local night. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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