[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 8 10:49:08 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:Yellow ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The solar wind speed increased from 300 to 500 km/s
due to a recurrent coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component had a southward orientation between 04 and
09UT and the peak was about -7nT. Active Region 1007 rotated
off the visible disk and the sun is presently spotless. No xray
flares occurred 07 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 13333223
Darwin 10 13233223
Townsville 13 23333233
Camden 10 13323223
Canberra 10 13323223
Hobart 10 12333123
Casey(Ant) 15 24432224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 12 Unsettled
09 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 4 November
and is current for interval 5-8 November. There appeared to be
reconnection between 04-09 UT, 07 November, with the Earth's
magnetic field due to the southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field and resulted in geomagnetic
activity with active levels at high latitudes only. Expect the
geomagnetic field to have unsettled conditions and isolated cases
of active levels for the next two days due to an elevated solar
wind stream. 10 November is expect to return to quiet condition.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
09 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
10 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 5 November
and is current for interval 6-8 November. Equatorial and northern
Australian regions may continue to have slightly depressed conditions
during local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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