[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3
COMMENT: Active region 1007 shows three spots with a simple magnetic 
configuration and is unlikely to flare at this time. The solar 
wind speed has returned to normal levels and is expected to remain 
at this level for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21210111
      Darwin               3   20110112
      Learmonth            4   21210112
      Camden               2   11210011
      Canberra             2   10210001
      Hobart               3   11210111
      Casey(Ant)           7   33-21121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1321 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov     6    Quiet 
03 Nov     4    Quiet 
04 Nov     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Nov   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values 
03 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values 
04 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Equatorial and northern Australian regions may continue 
to have slightly depressed conditions during local night. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 622 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   152000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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