[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 08

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Active region 1007 has tripled in size since yesterday, 
showing nine spots in white light. Has simple manetic configuration 
and is unlikely to flare at this time. The solar wind speed measured 
by the ACE spacecraft is steadily decreasing and is presently 
at about 560km/s. It is expected to be at normal levels tomorrow. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221122
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Learmonth            7   23221122
      Camden               5   -2221112
      Canberra             5   22220121
      Hobart               7   23221122
      Casey(Ant)          11   4--32222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Camden              11   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3223 2432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov     6    Quiet 
02 Nov     6    Quiet 
03 Nov     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Oct   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values 
02 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values 
03 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Equatorial and northern Australian regions may continue 
to have slightly depressed conditions during local night. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 669 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   209000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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