[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 08

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Active region 1007 has produced 4 B-class flares over 
night and has increased to 8 spots and the GONG magnetogram showed 
a beta-gamma configuration. Note, there is a slight possiblity 
for a C-class flare. LASCO C3 imagery showed a weak CME on the 
west limb which appeared at approximately 06UT 02 November, however 
it did not appear to be associated with AR 1007 and will not likely
be geo-effective. The solar wind is at normal levels. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11222012
      Darwin               3   11121012
      Learmonth            5   21222112
      Camden               4   11222012
      Canberra             4   01222012
      Hobart               5   11222022
      Casey(Ant)           7   23-22122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     4    Quiet 
04 Nov     4    Quiet 
05 Nov     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Nov   -18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
04 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
05 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Equatorial and northern Australian regions may continue 
to have slightly depressed conditions during local night. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    86700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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