[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 23 09:34:50 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The effect of the coronal hole continued to keep
the solar wind stream strengthened as expected. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 620 km/s around 0000UT
to 510 km/s by around 2300UT. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained between
+5 and -5 nT for most part of the UT day today as well.
Solar wind stream is expected to gradually weaken over
the next two days due to an expected weakening in the
geoeffectiveness of the coronal hole. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 8 22212332
Darwin 6 21111322
Townsville 9 22222332
Learmonth 10 22222432
Camden 6 21102331
Canberra 8 21102431
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 9 23322--2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 14 (Quiet)
Camden 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 126 (Severe storm)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 3433 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 6 Quiet
25 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 20 May
and is current for interval 21-23 May. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually decline over the next
two days due to an expected continued weakening in the
solar wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with some
possibility of isolated active periods on 23 May and
then further decline to mostly quiet levels for the
following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be observed at times on high latitude circuits
on 23 May. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on 24 and 25 May on most locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day with some periods of
depressions,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced at times by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Conditions remained unstable. Periods of enhancement,
depressions and degradations observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 11 near predicted monthly values
24 May 13 near predicted monthly values
25 May 14 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions over the next three days with a small
possibility of minor depressions in MUFs on 23 May in the
southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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