[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 24 09:16:52 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The effect of the coronal hole continued to slowly
decline as expected. The solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 520 km/s around 0000UT to 480 km/s by around 2300UT. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained between +5 and -5 nT for most part of the UT
day today as well. Solar wind stream is expected to continue
a gradual weakening over the next two days as the coronal hole
moves further out of the geoeffective position. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 8 22123132
Darwin 5 211130--
Townsville 8 222232--
Learmonth 10 22124232
Camden 5 11013122
Canberra 6 11013132
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 11 33223232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Gnangara 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3211 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 7 Quiet to unsettled
25 May 6 Quiet
26 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to further
decline for the next two days due to a continued weakening
in the solar wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 24 May and
then decline to mostly quiet levels on 25 and 26 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be observed at times on high latitude circuits
on 24 May. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on 25 and 26 May on most locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed at times by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced at times by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of 30%
enhancements and periods of noticeable degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 8 near predicted monthly values
25 May 10 near predicted monthly values
26 May 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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