[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 22 09:44:33 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The effect of the coronal hole continued to keep
the solar wind stream strengthened as expected. The solar
wind speed gradually increased from 470 km/s around 0000UT
to 620 km/s by around 1400UT and gradually decreased to
550 km/s by 2300UT. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) remained between +5 and
-5 nT for most part of the UT day today. Solar wind stream
is expected to gradually weaken over the next two days due
to an expected weakening in the coronal hole effect. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 12 33332322
Darwin 6 22221212
Townsville 12 33332322
Learmonth 11 33332321
Camden 8 23232221
Canberra 8 23232221
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 13 33332332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2231 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 12 Mostly unsettled, some active periods possible.
23 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
24 May 6 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 20 May and
is current for interval 21-23 May. The geomagnetic activity
is expected to gradually decline over the next two days due
to an expected weakening in the solar wind stream. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at unsettled levels with
some possibility of active periods on 22 May and then decline
to mostly unsettled periods with the possibility of some quiet
periods on 23 May, and then further decline to quiet levels
on 24 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed at high and some mid
latitude locations on 22 May due to an anticipated continued
rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with some periods of
enhancements upto 35% and some period of significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 05 to
10%
23 May 12 near predicted monthly values
24 May 14 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed in the Southern Aus/NZ
regions on 22 May due to an anticipated continued rise in
the geomagnetic activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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