[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 9 09:37:02 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity
continued to decrease, down to ~440km/s. IMF Bz mainly near zero
or north, not conducive to geomagnetic merging. AR993 is still
on the solar disc but not growing and magnetically simple so
probability of flaring is low. AR993 has magnetic polarity associated
to the new cycle-24. STEREO-B spacecraft shows some extended
Bz south 1-2 days ahead of Earth and a possible solar sector
boundary following it, but these may evolve in transit. No upcoming
coronal holes evident in SOHO spacecraft images.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 4 21212111
Darwin 4 21112112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 21222121
Camden 3 21112001
Canberra 3 21212000
Hobart 4 21212111
Casey(Ant) 6 23222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2100 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 7 Quiet
10 May 6 Quiet
11 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has again reduced to slightly above
average at 440km/s, so disturbance to the geomagnetic field is
minimal. IMF Bz was mostly north or near zero during the day,
so not favourable for geomagnetic merging. The geomagnetic field
was quiet at mid to low latitudes. High-latitudes were quiet
to active. Expect continued quietening conditions for the next
2-3 days in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards. STEREO-B
spacecraft shows some extended Bz south 1-2 days ahead of Earth
and a possible solar sector boundary that may cause geomagnetic
disturbance. No upcoming coronal holes evident in SOHO spacecraft
images.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 6 near predicted monthly values
10 May 6 near predicted monthly values
11 May 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional foF2 and T-index generally close to monthly
average. Short-term variability in foF2 again observed Equatorial/N
Aus. although Equatorial/N Aus values sometimes below average
for an hour or two and PNG exhibited strong daytime enhancement
and near-dawn depletion. Spread-F again observed in the south-east
(HBT, NLK), particularly at night, and also in the north-west
(LEA). Normal ionospheric conditions essentially re-established
at mid latitudes and expected to continue for 2-3 days. Antarctic
ionosphere also relative stable with lower geomagnetic activity
and prolonged IMF Bz north (see Geomagnetic section), reducing
ploar cap twin-cell convection .
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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