[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 9 09:37:02 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity 
continued to decrease, down to ~440km/s. IMF Bz mainly near zero 
or north, not conducive to geomagnetic merging. AR993 is still 
on the solar disc but not growing and magnetically simple so 
probability of flaring is low. AR993 has magnetic polarity associated 
to the new cycle-24. STEREO-B spacecraft shows some extended 
Bz south 1-2 days ahead of Earth and a possible solar sector 
boundary following it, but these may evolve in transit. No upcoming 
coronal holes evident in SOHO spacecraft images. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21212111
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   21222121
      Camden               3   21112001
      Canberra             3   21212000
      Hobart               4   21212111
      Casey(Ant)           6   23222111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            18   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2100 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May     7    Quiet 
10 May     6    Quiet 
11 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has again reduced to slightly above 
average at 440km/s, so disturbance to the geomagnetic field is 
minimal. IMF Bz was mostly north or near zero during the day, 
so not favourable for geomagnetic merging. The geomagnetic field 
was quiet at mid to low latitudes. High-latitudes were quiet 
to active. Expect continued quietening conditions for the next 
2-3 days in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards. STEREO-B 
spacecraft shows some extended Bz south 1-2 days ahead of Earth 
and a possible solar sector boundary that may cause geomagnetic 
disturbance. No upcoming coronal holes evident in SOHO spacecraft 
images. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May     6    near predicted monthly values 
10 May     6    near predicted monthly values 
11 May     6    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Regional foF2 and T-index generally close to monthly 
average. Short-term variability in foF2 again observed Equatorial/N 
Aus. although Equatorial/N Aus values sometimes below average 
for an hour or two and PNG exhibited strong daytime enhancement 
and near-dawn depletion. Spread-F again observed in the south-east 
(HBT, NLK), particularly at night, and also in the north-west 
(LEA). Normal ionospheric conditions essentially re-established 
at mid latitudes and expected to continue for 2-3 days. Antarctic 
ionosphere also relative stable with lower geomagnetic activity 
and prolonged IMF Bz north (see Geomagnetic section), reducing 
ploar cap twin-cell convection . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 505 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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