[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 10 09:04:16 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity
continued to decrease from 460 km/s to 400km/s. IMF Bz mainly
near zero or north, not conducive to geomagnetic merging. No
upcoming coronal holes evident in SOHO spacecraft images. No
spots presently visible on the solar disk at this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 3 21111011
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 1 11110001
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 2 20111011
Casey(Ant) 6 23311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2122 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 6 Quiet
11 May 4 Quiet
12 May 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 5 near predicted monthly values
11 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E noted throughout the UT day at Nuie.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 85200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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