[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 8 09:18:42 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity 
continued to decrease, down to ~480km/s. IMF Bz mainly zero or 
north, not conducive to geomagnetic merging. AR993 is still on 
the solar disc but not growing and magnetically simple so probability 
of flaring is low. AR993 has magnetic polarity associated to 
the new cycle-24. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111121
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   22111121
      Camden               2   21001011
      Canberra             2   21001011
      Hobart               3   21111111
      Casey(Ant)           8   32221132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Camden              13   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   4332 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May     6    Quiet 
09 May     6    Quiet 
10 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has reduced to only slightly above 
average at 480km/s, so disturbance to the geomagnetic field has 
become minimal. IMF Bz was mostly north and zero during the day, 
so not favourable geomagnetic merging. The geomagnetic field 
was quiet at mid to low latitudes. High-latitudes were quiet 
to unsettled with active to minor storm late in the UT day, possibly 
due to a solar wind step jump ~20UT. Expect continued quietening 
conditions for the next day in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz 
southwards. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 May     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May     6    near predicted monthly values 
09 May     6    near predicted monthly values 
10 May     6    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Short-term variability and spread-F observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Regional foF2 and T-index generally close to monthly 
average although Equatorial/N Aus values sometimes below average 
for an hour or two. Spread-F again observed in the south-east 
(HBT, NLK). Normal ionospheric conditions essentially re-established 
at mid latitudes. Antarctic ionosphere should be achieiving relative 
stability with estended northward IMF Bz and weakening geomagnetic 
activity as coronal hole solar wind speed declines. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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