[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 8 09:18:42 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity
continued to decrease, down to ~480km/s. IMF Bz mainly zero or
north, not conducive to geomagnetic merging. AR993 is still on
the solar disc but not growing and magnetically simple so probability
of flaring is low. AR993 has magnetic polarity associated to
the new cycle-24.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 4 21111121
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22111121
Camden 2 21001011
Canberra 2 21001011
Hobart 3 21111111
Casey(Ant) 8 32221132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 3 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Gnangara 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 4332 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 6 Quiet
09 May 6 Quiet
10 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has reduced to only slightly above
average at 480km/s, so disturbance to the geomagnetic field has
become minimal. IMF Bz was mostly north and zero during the day,
so not favourable geomagnetic merging. The geomagnetic field
was quiet at mid to low latitudes. High-latitudes were quiet
to unsettled with active to minor storm late in the UT day, possibly
due to a solar wind step jump ~20UT. Expect continued quietening
conditions for the next day in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz
southwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 6 near predicted monthly values
09 May 6 near predicted monthly values
10 May 6 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Short-term variability and spread-F observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Regional foF2 and T-index generally close to monthly
average although Equatorial/N Aus values sometimes below average
for an hour or two. Spread-F again observed in the south-east
(HBT, NLK). Normal ionospheric conditions essentially re-established
at mid latitudes. Antarctic ionosphere should be achieiving relative
stability with estended northward IMF Bz and weakening geomagnetic
activity as coronal hole solar wind speed declines.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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