[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 30 10:23:02 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Regions
987(S08W32), 988(S08W07) and 989(S12E22) remained quiet
for the last 24 hours but isolated C-flare may be possible
from these regions. The currently going on coronal hole
effect seems to be declining as the solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 620 to 520 km/s during the UT day
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) stayed slightly (upto -4nT) southward
for almost the whole day today. Solar wind stream is expected
to continue to weaken for the next two days as the coronal hole
effect diminishes slowly. Solar activity is expected to remain
mostly at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Darwin 7 22123212
Townsville 10 22223323
Learmonth 11 22233332
Camden 7 12223222
Canberra 8 22223222
Hobart 7 12223222
Casey(Ant) 13 -4-23223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 21 5444 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 10 Unsettled turning quiet.
31 Mar 6 Quiet
01 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels today because of a weakening in the solar
wind stream. This weakening in geomagnetic activity levels
is expected to continue on 30 March as the solar wind stream
is expected to further weaken during this period. Activity
is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on
30 March and quiet levels for the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be possible, especially on high latitude locations
on 30 March due to an anticipated continued slight rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over with periods of minor to
significant degradations and depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 25 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 28 10 to 30% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 28 10 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 660 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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