[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 31 10:28:01 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. The currently
going on coronal hole effect seems to have weakend further
as the solar wind speed gradually decreased from 530 to 480
km/s during the UT day today. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic fields (Bz) showed minor (between
+/-4nT) fluctuations on both sides of the normal value almost
the whole day today. Solar wind stream is expected to continue
to weaken on 31 March as the coronal hole effect diminishes
further. Isolated C-flare may be possible from any of the
three regions that are currently on the visible side of the
solar disk. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at
very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22223211
Darwin 7 222-----
Townsville 7 222-----
Learmonth 7 22223221
Camden 6 22213211
Canberra 7 22213212
Hobart 6 22213211
Casey(Ant) 12 33333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2322 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 6 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible.
01 Apr 5 Quiet
02 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels today because of a further weakening in
the solar wind stream. This weakening in geomagnetic activity
levels is expected to continue on 31 March as the solar wind
stream is expected to further weaken during this period.
Activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet levels for
the next three days with the possibility of some unsettled
periods on 31 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most locations for the next three days with some
possibility of isolated minor degradations at high latitudes
on 31 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over with periods of minor to
significant degardations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 25 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 27 10 to 35% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 27 10 to 35% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:36%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 583 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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