[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 29 10:35:19 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Regions
987(S08W19), 988(S08E06) and 989(S12E35) are all
C-flare capable. The currently going on coronal hole
effect continued to keep the solar wind stream strengthened
as the solar wind speed remained enhanced between 600
and 650 km/s for most part of the UT day today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
fields (Bz) stayed slightly (upto -5nT) southward for
almost the whole day today. Solar wind stream is expected
to remain strengthened due to the effect of the currently
geoeffective coronal hole for approximately one more day.
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at very low to
low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Moslty unsettled to
active with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 18 33444332
Darwin 13 32433322
Townsville 18 33444332
Learmonth 27 33555432
Camden 19 32454322
Canberra 20 33454322
Hobart 19 32454322
Casey(Ant) 19 3-443342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 31 6543 3245
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 15 Unsettled to active
30 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
31 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained enhanced to unsettled
to active today with some periods of minor storm conditions
due to the currently going on coronal hole effect. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at unsettled to active
levels on 29 March and then gradually decline to unsettled to
quiet levels on 30 March and stay at quiet levels on 31 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be possible, especially on high
and some mid latitude locations on 29 March due to an
anticipated continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly value to enhanced by 25%,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly value with periods of
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 14 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 16 05 to 10% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 18 05 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions and minor
depressions in MUFs may be possible at times on 29 March,
especially across Southern Aus/NZ regions due to an
anticipated continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 615 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 266000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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