[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 20 10:21:23 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The ACE spacecraft plots show that the Solar wind has 
remained around the 480 km/s for the last 24 hours. Also the 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component fluctuated between 
+/-5 nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12212212
      Darwin               6   21213212
      Townsville           8   2222-322
      Learmonth            5   1122----
      Camden               4   1121-211
      Canberra             4   11211211
      Hobart               5   1221-221
      Casey(Ant)          11   23423212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3411 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar     6    Quiet 
21 Mar     6    Quiet 
22 Mar     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: The mid to southern region of Australia showed an unexpected 
increase in geomagnetic activity between 12-14 UT, otherwise 
it was mostly quiet with unsettled conditions in the Antarctic 
region. Expect quiet conditions for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Mar     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
21 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
22 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: The Australian region showed sporadic E (Es) during 
local day hours only. High latitudes showed ocassional spread 
F conditions and Es during the local night time hours. For more 
detail on particular regions and times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" 
to view the ionograms. Expect slight depressions at low latitudes 
and the North Australian region due to very low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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