[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 20 10:21:23 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The ACE spacecraft plots show that the Solar wind has
remained around the 480 km/s for the last 24 hours. Also the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component fluctuated between
+/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12212212
Darwin 6 21213212
Townsville 8 2222-322
Learmonth 5 1122----
Camden 4 1121-211
Canberra 4 11211211
Hobart 5 1221-221
Casey(Ant) 11 23423212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3411 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 6 Quiet
21 Mar 6 Quiet
22 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The mid to southern region of Australia showed an unexpected
increase in geomagnetic activity between 12-14 UT, otherwise
it was mostly quiet with unsettled conditions in the Antarctic
region. Expect quiet conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: The Australian region showed sporadic E (Es) during
local day hours only. High latitudes showed ocassional spread
F conditions and Es during the local night time hours. For more
detail on particular regions and times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3"
to view the ionograms. Expect slight depressions at low latitudes
and the North Australian region due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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