[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 19 10:52:47 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The ACE spacecraft plots show that the Solar wind has
remained steady for the last 24 hours at approximately 480 km/s.
Also the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component fluctuated
between +/-5 nT and appeared to have a northerly bias, reducing
it's geo-effectiveness via merging with the the geomagnetic field.
The LASCO c3 imager shows a CME in progress on the south-east
limb that commenced at around 1100 UT 18 March. It does not appear
to be geoeffective as there is no associated activity on the
visible disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 23222212
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 10 33222322
Learmonth 9 23223302
Camden 5 22112202
Canberra 5 22112202
Hobart 5 22212211
Casey(Ant) 10 24-32212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2000 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 6 Quiet
20 Mar 4 Quiet
21 Mar 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: The Australian region showed sporadic E (Es) during
local day hours only. High latitudes showed ocassional spread
F conditions, particularly at local night hours. For more detail
on particular regions and times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3"
to view the ionograms. Expect slight depressions at low latitudes
and the North Australian region due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 89200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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