[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 18 10:05:07 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind declined from 550 km/s to 480 km/s over the
last 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component
fluctuated between +/-5 nT and appeared to have a northerly bias,
reducing it's geo-effectiveness via merging with the the geomagnetic
field. The sunspot region AR986 on the western limb remains a
single spot with with very little chance of flare activity. There
is a CME in progress on the west limb that commenced at around
1400 UT 17 March. It does not appear to be geoeffective as there
is no associated activity on the visible disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22111222
Darwin 5 21111222
Townsville 7 22212322
Learmonth 6 22101322
Camden 4 11110222
Canberra 4 1-110222
Hobart 5 11112222
Casey(Ant) 8 23321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2210 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 6 Quiet
19 Mar 6 Quiet
20 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic activity to go from unsettled
to quiet conditions as the solar wind speed decreases to normal
levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: The Australian region showed sporadic E (Es) during
local day hours only. High latitudes showed ocassional spread
F conditions, particularly at local night hours. Nuie showed
Es over the UT day. For more detail on particular regions and
times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view the ionograms.
Expect slight depressions at low latitudes and the North Australian
region due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 569 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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