[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 17 10:21:14 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind declined 580-540 km/s over the last 24 hours
and fluctuations also decreased, indicating the effects of the
coronal hole are now waning. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) Bz component fluctuated between +/-4 nT and appeared to
have a northerly bias, reducing it's geo-effectiveness via merging
with the the geomagnetic field. The sunspot region AR986 on the
western limb has declined in magnetic complexity to an Alpha
class with a single spot, and it's X-ray emissions are low with
little likelihood of flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 21213312
Camden 4 12212111
Canberra 5 12212202
Hobart 5 22212111
Casey(Ant) 11 3-432211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 3314 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Mar 6 Quiet
19 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is was mostly Quiet with occasional
Unsettled levels at mid to low latitudes as the solar wind speed
declines and it's effect on the field wanes. This trend is expected
to continue for the next 24h. High latitudes were Quiet-Unsettled
with occasional Active, but not particularly disturbed due to
Bz predominantly northwards. Expect generally quiet condition
as the coronal hole induced solar wind speeds fade and the IMF
sector boundary crossing has occurred. The post-coronal hole
inner magnetosphere (equatorial ionosphere) disturbances also
appear to have faded.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
5%
18 Mar 6 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian Region MUFs were genrally returning to normal
over the last 24h. Equatorial regions still show large enhancements
and depressions about the avergae however. A significant
depletion-enhancement-depletion
was observed at most stations across the region just after dusk.
More prominent at equatorial latitudes and also occurring in
the east (Niue) earlier, suggesting a wave trailing the dusk
terminator. Some strong spread-F was observed in equatorial regions
(Vanimo at night) and in the south-east (Hobart pre-dawn and
Christchurch at night). For more detail on particular regions
and times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view the ionograms.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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