[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 16 10:09:27 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind has remained around 600 km/s over the last
24 hours. It may decline slightly over the UT day, however is
expected to remain elevated above normal levels for the next
3 days. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated
between +/-4 nT over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain
within +/- 5nT for the next several days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 33342211
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 14 32252322
Camden 8 22242211
Canberra 8 22242211
Hobart 10 23342211
Casey(Ant) 16 44442212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 2332 2433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 12 Unsettled
17 Mar 12 Unsettled
18 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet
to unsettled levels at mid to low latitudes and at high latitudes
is epected to be unsttled with isolated cases of active levels
due to the elevated solar wind. Note, there was an active to
to minor storm level period between 09-11UT 15 March.
A weak (23nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1018UT on 15 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Most of the equatorial and Australian region show sporadic
E (Es) during daylight hours which disipated during the night
time hours. High latitude iongrams showed frequent spread F conditions
and Es during late night, early morning hours. Note, this trend
is likely to continue. For more detail on particular regions
and times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view the ionograms.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 609 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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