[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 16 10:09:27 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind has remained around 600 km/s over the last 
24 hours. It may decline slightly over the UT day, however is 
expected to remain elevated above normal levels for the next 
3 days. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated 
between +/-4 nT over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain 
within +/- 5nT for the next several days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   33342211
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth           14   32252322
      Camden               8   22242211
      Canberra             8   22242211
      Hobart              10   23342211
      Casey(Ant)          16   44442212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            56   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   2332 2433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar    12    Unsettled 
17 Mar    12    Unsettled 
18 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet 
to unsettled levels at mid to low latitudes and at high latitudes 
is epected to be unsttled with isolated cases of active levels 
due to the elevated solar wind. Note, there was an active to 
to minor storm level period between 09-11UT 15 March. 
A weak (23nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1018UT on 15 Mar. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Mar     -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
17 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
18 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Most of the equatorial and Australian region show sporadic 
E (Es) during daylight hours which disipated during the night 
time hours. High latitude iongrams showed frequent spread F conditions
and Es during late night, early morning hours. Note, this trend 
is likely to continue. For more detail on particular regions 
and times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view the ionograms.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 609 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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