[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 15 10:21:27 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind has remained around 600 km/s over the last
24 hours. It may decline slightly over the UT day, however is
expected to remain elevated above normal levels for the next
3 days. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated
between +/-4 nT over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain
within +/- 5nT for the next several days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 22333322
Darwin 7 2222----
Townsville 9 2232----
Learmonth 13 22323433
Camden 11 22333322
Canberra 11 22333322
Hobart 11 22333322
Casey(Ant) 17 34332433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 57 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 2324 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 6 Quiet
16 Mar 12 Unsettled
17 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet
to unsettled levels at mid to low latitudes and at high latitudes
is epected to be unsttled with isolated cases of active levels
due to the elevated solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Most of the equatorial and Australian region show sporadic
E (Es) during daylight hours which disipated during the night
time hours, with exception of Hobart and Nuie which showed Es
through out most of the UT day. High latitude iongrams showed
frequent spread F conditions. Note, this trend is likely to continue.
For more detail on particular regions and times go to
"www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view the ionograms.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 615 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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