[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 14 10:38:50 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
and expected to continue at this level. There are no sunspots
on the disc. Previous AR983 may return 14 Mar with normal rotation.
Solar wind speeds (Vsw) remain elevated due to a high speed coronal
hole wind stream but declined from ~640 to 580 km/sec at the
ACE spacecraft. Vsw is still gusty but less than yesterday. The
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) rapid fluctuations are also
declining. IMF Bz was predominantly southward 08-14UT but low
strength so geomagnetic merging was probably weak. The coronal
hole is turning south outside geoeffective solar latitudes as
the Sun rotates. Hence solar wind speeds can be expected to decline
for the next 1-2 days to normal. An IMF solar sector boundary
crossing is predicted ~14UT on 14th March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 23344221
Darwin 9 22234121
Townsville 16 23345222
Learmonth 17 22355221
Camden 11 22244121
Canberra 11 22244220
Hobart 13 23244222
Casey(Ant) 19 44444222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 2442 1142
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 6 Quiet
15 Mar 4 Quiet
16 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: 1. The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled at mid
and equatorial latitudes as the solar wind speed from the recurrent
coronal hole wind stream declined. An exception to this was 11-14UT
when Active to Minor Storm levels were observed at low and mid
latitudes and Major Storm at mid-high plasmapause (edge of inner
magnetosphere) latitudes. This event coincided with magnetic
disturbances in the inner magnetosphere (GOES spececraft at
geostationary altitude). There was no obvious precursor solar IMF disturbance
observed at the ACE spacecraft. This is possibly the remnant
of the geomagnetic disturbance earlier in the week resolving
itself inside the inner magetosphere. 2. Polar latitudes varied
from Quiet to Minor Storm levels, responding to the IMF fluctuations
and extended weak southward period (see solar). Polar latitudes
did not appear to respond to the 11-14UT Active-Storm event seen
at lower latitudes. 3. The general trend in the next two days
should be for declining activity as enhanced solar wind speeds
abate, with possible further lo-mid latitude post-coronal hole
Active periods as described above. An IMF solar sector boundary
crossing is predicted ~14UT on 14th March and may cause mild
geomagnetic disturbance.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal-fair Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
15 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
16 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 0 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
15 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: 1. MUFs were on average only just below monthly averages
as geomagnetic activity directly from the coronal hole high-speed
solar-wind stream was weak. However the moderate nightime MUF
depressions at equatorial and near-equatorial latitudes may have
been the response to an inner magnetosphere disturbance (see
geomagnetic section). Equatorial latitudes may continue to have
moderate enhancements and depressions as the post-coronal-hole
effects resolve themselves. Ionospheric resilience appears greater
than the last equinox. Expect mid-latitudes returning to mostly
normal HF conditions over the next day or two. 2. Extensive spread-F
and sporadic E (Es) were observed. (Niue: dusk to night Es; Vanimo:
pre-dawn Es; Brisbane: Es night and pre-dawn; Learmonth: spread-F
midnight-dawn; Camden: weak Es during the day; Hobart: night
spread-F; Christchurch: night spread-F and pre-dawn Es) 3. Polar
ionosphere continues moderately disturbed as usual with high
spread-F occurrence due to extended southward IMF Bz and also
enhanced Bz fluctuations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 656 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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