[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 13 10:29:09 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
and expected to continue at this level. Sunspot Region 985 has
now rotated off the west limb and previous AR983 may return 12-14
Mar. Solar wind speeds (Vsw) remain elevated due to a high speed
coronal hole wind stream and generally remained ~650km/sec. Vsw
is still gusty but less than yesterday with typical 20km/sec
fluctuations over 30mins. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
rapid fluctuations are still above normal but also declining.
No extended periods (>2hours) of IMF Bz southward occurred. The
size of the coronal hole and recurrence patterns suggest elevated
solar wind speeds can be expected for the next 1-2 days. However
the Vsw and IMF fluctuations should steadily decrease resulting
in less geoeffective conditions. An IMF solar sector boundary
crossing is predicted ~14UT on 14th March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 23322132
Darwin 7 22322122
Townsville 10 23322232
Learmonth 11 23323232
Camden 9 23322132
Canberra 10 23332132
Hobart 10 23332132
Casey(Ant) 21 44533233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 3142 4312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Mar 6 Quiet
15 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was less disturbed than recent
days, from Quiet to Unsettled (~14UT) at mid and equatorial latitudes.
The solar wind speed from the recurrent coronal hole wind stream
is now more steady and less gusty and the geomagnetic field is
not responding so strongly. Polar latitudes varied from Quiet
to Storm (~20UT) levels, responding more directly to the IMF
fluctuations (see solar section), particularly Bz reversals,
although no sustained Bz southwards periods occurred. The general
trend was stabilised Unsettled conditions, slightly less than
yesterday. The coronal hole is likely to produce continued Unsettled
conditions over the next day at mid/low latitudes and probably
more disturbed at high latitudes. An IMF solar sector boundary
crossing is predicted ~14UT on 14th March and may cause mild
geomagnetic disturbance.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
5%
14 Mar 6 near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 6 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs again recovered faster from depressions caused
by geomagnetic activity from the coronal hole high-speed solar-wind
stream, and were generally near monthly averages. Ionospheric
resilience appears greater than the last equinox. Expect mid-latitudes
returning to mostly normal HF conditions. The south-east quadrant
exhibited Spread F (CCH post-dusk and pre-dawn, HBT post-dusk)
and strong Es (CCH midnight, HBT pre-dawn, MQI night). Large
enhancements and depressions continued at equatorial latitudes,
particularly dusk enhancements and pre-dawn depressions, as residuals
of the geomagnetic disturbance, and will take longer to settle
than mid-latitudes. Polar ionosphere continues disturbed due
to ongoing geomagnetic activity from IMF fluctuations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 676 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: 1 nT
Magnetopause stand-off distance has been reduced from ~15Re to 12Re.
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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