[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 12 10:24:51 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
and expected to continue at this level. Sunspot Region 985 produced
some low level A/B X-ray flare activity, but has now rotated
off the west limb. IPS solar observatory at Learmonth also observed
three optical flares from AR985. Solar wind speeds (Vsw) remain
elevated due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream.but are
declining from ~720km/sec to ~640km/sec. The solar wind is gusty
with typical 40km/sec fluctuations over 30mins. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) rapid fluctuations are still above normal.
IMF fluctuations are decreasing with some more extended periods
of IMF Bz north or south (10-16UT). The size of the coronal hole
and recurrence patterns suggest elevated solar wind speeds can
be expected for the next 2-3 days. However the Vsw and IMF
fluctuations should decrease later in this interval, resulting in less geoeffective
conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 15 23344322
Darwin 12 22334322
Townsville 15 23344322
Learmonth 20 23355322
Camden 14 13344321
Canberra 14 13344321
Hobart 12 13343321
Casey(Ant) 15 3-433323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 4423 4234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was variable, from Quiet to Active
(~14UT) at mid and equatorial latitudes, in response to elevated
and gusty solar wind speed from the recurrent coronal hole wind
stream. High latitudes varied from Unsettled to Storm (~16UT)
levels, responding more directly to the strong IMF fluctuations
(see solar section) and sustained southward Bz period (10-16UT)
than mid and equatorial latitudes. The general trend was stabilised
disturbed conditions, similar to yesterday. The coronal hole
is likely to produce continued Unsettled conditions over the
next two days (11-12 March) with possible Active periods at mid/low
latitudes and Minor Storm conditions at high latitudes especially
when prolonged Bz southwards occurs as IMF fluctuations settle.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 0 about 5% below predicted monthly values
13 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have recovered faster than expected at mid-latitudes
and were only slightly depressed over the UT day. The ionosphere
is possibly recovering faster than expected, from depressions
caused by geomagnetic activity from the coronal hole high-speed
solar-wind stream, due to ionising radiation from AR985. However
large enhancements and depressions continued at equatorial latitudes.
Possible isolated but less deep MUF depressions 12 March if
geomagnetic events occur but otherwise returning to mostly normal HF conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 667 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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