[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 11 10:44:26 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
and expected to continue at this level. Solar wind speeds remain
elevated at 620-680km/sec, due to a high speed coronal hole wind
stream. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) had large fluctuations
in the wake of the Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) and IMF
sector boundary crossing. IMF Bz had no north-south preference
and varied +/-4nT. The size of the coronal hole and also recurrence
patterns suggests elevated solar wind speeds can be expected
for the next 4-5 days. However the IMF fluctuations should decrease
later in this interval, resulting in less geoeffective conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 33233223
Darwin 8 23123222
Townsville 12 33223233
Learmonth 13 43233223
Camden 12 33233223
Canberra 12 33233223
Hobart 11 33233222
Casey(Ant) 16 34-33333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 62 (Active)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 25 4553 3224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 12 Unsettled
12 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was variable, from Quiet to Active
at mid and equatorial latitudes, in response to elevated solar
wind speed from the recurrent coronal hole wind stream. The high
latitudes varied from Unsettled to Minor Storm levels, responding
more directly to the strong IMF fluctuations (see solar section)
than mid/low latitudes. The general trend is toward less disturbed
conditions than yesterday. The coronal hole is likely to produce
further Unsettled conditions over the next two days (11-12 March)
with possible Active periods at mid/low latitudes and Minor Storm
conditions at high latitudes especially if prolonged Bz southwards
occurs after IMF fluctuations settle.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar -15 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
12 Mar -10 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
13 Mar 0 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 10 March
and is current for interval 10-11 March. MUFs were up to 30%
depressed compared with monthly values over the UT day due to
geomagnetic activity from the recurrent solar coronal hole high-speed
solar-wind stream. Large enhancement and depressions at equatorial
latitudes. Expect further but less deep MUF depressions 11-12
March but otherwise mostly normal HF conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 592 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 234000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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