[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 10 10:08:07 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue at Very Low levels. Solar wind speeds remain
elevated due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream, currently
near 700km/s. Some very large fluctuations in the IMF produced
periods of sustained southward IMF, particularly 02-04UT. The
size of the coronal hole and recurrence suggests elevated solar
wind speeds can be expected for the next 5-6 days however the
IMF fluctuations should decrease resulting in less geoeffective
conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Unsettled with an
Minor Storm period.
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 20 34543232
Darwin 15 34433222
Townsville 19 34443333
Learmonth 21 34543332
Camden 19 34543222
Canberra 19 34543222
Hobart 22 34544233
Casey(Ant) 24 45533333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 11 0011 4431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 12 Unsettled
11 Mar 12 Unsettled
12 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled with a Minor
Storm period ~03-10UT resulting from a period of sustained strongly
southward IMF within the present coronal hole wind stream. The
high latitudes experienced Major storm conditions. The coronal
hole is likely to produce further Unsettled conditions next three
days (10-12 March) with isolated Active periods. Minor storm
conditions likely at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values / depressed by
up to 20%
11 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values / depressed by
up to 20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the UT day. Some strong MUF enhancements occurred in the N.Aus
and S.Aus/sub-Antarctic regions ~03-09UT coincident with minor
geomagnetic storm conditions. Some degradation of HF propagation
conditions was observed. Expect MUF depressions 10-12 March but
otherwise mostly normal HF conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 12.2 p/cc Temp: 75800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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