[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 9 10:21:23 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue at Very Low levels. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream moved into geoeffective position early
in the UT day (08 March) with some large IMF fluctuations and
high densities characteristic of a Corotating Interation Region
(CIR) on its leading edge. Expect further IMF fluctuations and
an increasing solar wind speed 09 March. The size of the coronal
hole and recurrence suggests elevated solar wind speeds can be
expected for the next 6-7 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 11134331
Darwin 7 11123321
Townsville 12 22234332
Learmonth 13 11134441
Camden 9 11124331
Canberra 12 00135331
Hobart 12 11125331
Casey(Ant) 9 22233222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
10 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the first half
of the UT day. A period of Active conditions was observed ~12-14
UT following the arrival of a coronal hole wind stream. The coronal
hole is likely to produce Unsettled to Active conditions 09 March
with Minor storm periods possible at high latitudes. Expect mostly
Unsettled conditions 10-11 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 6 near predicted monthly values
10 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values / depressed to
by up to 20%
11 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values / depressed to
by up to 20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the UT day. HF conditions were mostly normal over the first half
of the UT day degrading with the onset of enhanced geomagnetic
activity after ~12UT. Sporadic-E was observed at low and mid
latitude stations ~12-16UT. Expect mostly normal MUFs 09 March
with continuing degraded HF conditions. Minor MUF depressions
possible 10-11 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 22300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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