[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue at Very Low levels. A recurrent coronal 
hole high speed stream is expected to move into geoeffective 
position today (08 March). STEREO-B data shows a strong IMF and 
large fluctuations in magnetic field orientation on the leading 
edge of the coronal hole/CIR so a reasonable impact on the 
geomagnetic field is expected. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           6   12212222
      Learmonth            2   20110011
      Camden               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   10101110
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
09 Mar    20    active 
10 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. A 
recurrent coronal hole is likely to produce Unsettled to 
Active conditions 08-09 March with Minor storm periods 
possible, particularly at high latitudes. Expect mostly 
Unsettled conditions 10 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Mar     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
09 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values 
10 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs were observed over 
the last 24 hours across the Australian region. MUFs expected 
to be near predicted monthly values 08 March however some degraded 
HF conditions possible due to recurrent geomagnetic activity. 
Minor MUF depressions possible 09-10 March. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    60000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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