[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue at Very Low levels. A recurrent coronal 
hole high speed stream has been observed at the location of the 
STEREO-B satellite and the timing suggests an arrival at Earth 
of early UT 08 March. STEREO-B data shows a strong IMF and large 
fluctuations in magnetic field orientation on the leading edge 
of the coronal hole/CIR so a reasonable impact on the geomagnetic 
field is expected. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   20------
      Camden               1   10000101
      Canberra             1   11000101
      Hobart               1   11000100
      Casey(Ant)           9   33321212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1123 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar     5    Quiet 
08 Mar    18    active 
09 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions 07 March. A recurrent coronal 
hole is likely to produce mostly Active conditions 08 March with 
Minor Storm periods, particularly at high latitudes. Expect mostly 
Unsettled conditions 09 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Mar    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values 
08 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
09 Mar     0    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs were observed over 
the last 24 hours across the Australian region. Mostly normal 
conditions and MUFs expected for all regions 07 March. Degraded 
HF conditions possible 08 March due to recurrent geomagnetic 
activity. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    71300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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