[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 6 09:52:52 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue at Very Low levels. The solar filament which
erupted on 05 March from S30W10 produced a weak CME as observed
on SOHO LASCO imagery however it is not expected to be geoeffective.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) showed some extended
periods of Southwards Bz and high solar wind density over the
UT day. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to move into geoeffective position on 07 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
with an isolated Active period.
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 21234221
Darwin 8 21224121
Townsville 10 22234222
Learmonth 14 22235331
Camden 6 11123221
Canberra 7 11233221
Hobart 6 11223221
Casey(Ant) 11 3--33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1221 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 5 Quiet
07 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the first half
of the UT day becoming Unsettled after ~10UT due to extended
periods of southwards IMF and high solar wind density. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions 06 March with some Unsettled
periods. Isolated Active periods possible at high latitudes.
A recurrent coronal hole is likely to produce Unsettled to Active
conditions from 07 March with storm periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs were observed over
the last 24 hours across the Australian region. Mostly normal
MUFs expected for all regions for the next 2 days (06-07 March).
Degraded HF conditions possible 07 March due to recurrent
geomagnetic actviity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:37%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 45400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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