[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue at Very Low levels for the next 3 days. 
A disappearing solar filament was observed at S30W10 which may 
have produced a CME however this will be confirmed when the relevant 
SOHO LASCO imagery becomes available. The Interplanetary Magnetic 
Field (IMF) was quiet and the solar wind speed low, expected 
to continue next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12222000
      Darwin               3   11212001
      Townsville           6   22222121
      Learmonth            1   ----2000
      Camden               2   11212000
      Canberra             3   11213000
      Hobart               4   11213100
      Casey(Ant)           8   23332101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   3212 1110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar     3    Quiet 
06 Mar     3    Quiet 
07 Mar     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours with some isolated Active periods at high latitudes. 
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Mar    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar     0    near predicted monthly values 
06 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values 
07 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during the 
last 24 hours across the Australian region. Mostly normal conditions 
expected for all regions for the next 3 days (05-07 March). 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:37%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 567 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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