[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 4 10:04:37 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue at Very Low levels for the next 3 days. 
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was quiet over the UT 
day with fluctuations in the Bz component of less than 5nT. Solar 
wind speed declined further to be near 500km/s at the time of 
reporting. Expect continuing quiet IMF and solar wind conditions 
next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221211
      Darwin               4   22121111
      Townsville           8   32222222
      Learmonth            4   11211121
      Camden               5   22221211
      Canberra             5   22221201
      Hobart               6   22231201
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--22211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2232 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar     5    Quiet 
05 Mar     3    Quiet 
06 Mar     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
over the last 24 hours. Isolated Active periods were observed 
at high latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair          
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Mar   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    -5    depressed to 20% / near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar     0    near predicted monthly values 
06 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 3 March 
and is current for interval 3-4 March. Mostly normal HF conditions 
were observed during the last 24 hours across the Australian 
region, although some MUF depressions up to 20% were again observed 
in Equatorial and N.Aus regions during the local day. Antarctic 
regions experienced some disturbed HF conditions due to continuing 
geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions expected for all 
regions for the next 3 days. Equatorial and N.Aus regions may 
experience further MUF depressions up to 20% during the local 
day 04 March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:36%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 657 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   243000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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