[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 3 10:33:44 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity began to decline, from 800km/s at 0000UT to be
600km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT
over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22322312
Darwin 6 21222311
Townsville 10 22322323
Learmonth 3 11111211
Camden 9 22332312
Canberra 9 22332312
Hobart 10 22332322
Casey(Ant) 11 ---32323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 19 5433 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar 6 Quiet
05 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours with Quiet conditions for 04Mar-05Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
04 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last
24 hours across most regions, with minor depressions for Equatorial,
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Disturbed
HF conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal conditions
expected for all regions for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 758 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 375000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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