[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 2 10:44:41 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity remained at elevated levels, ranging between
700-800km/s over the UT day due to the effects of the current
geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Bz
fluctuated between +/-5nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 22322322
Darwin 12 33333222
Townsville 13 -333-332
Learmonth 3 11111121
Camden 11 --3--322
Canberra 11 --3--322
Hobart 11 --3-3322
Casey(Ant) 15 -----333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 27 4444 3545
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 11 Unsettled
03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Active over the last
24 hours with minor storm levels at high latitudes. Mostly Unsettled
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated
Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for
03Mar-04Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
03 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
04 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 1 March
and is current for interval 1-2 March. Enhanced HF conditions
observed during the last 24 hours across most regions. Enhanced
conditions during local night for Equatorial regions while Northern
AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions experienced enhanced MUFs during
local day, with otherwise mostly normal conditions. Disturbed
HF conditions for Antarctic regions. Chance of depressed MUF's
ranging from 10-20% during local day for Northen AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions over the next 24-48 hours along with overnight
enhancements. Continued disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
Expected return to normal conditions between 03Mar-04Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Feb
Speed: 676 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 328000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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