[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 1 10:52:12 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity continued to increase from 600km/s to be 750km/s
at the time of this report, due to the effects of the current
geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Bz
fluctuated between +/-5nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Feb: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 33213133
Darwin 11 322-3-23
Townsville 15 333-3-3-
Learmonth 3 12111111
Camden 15 333-3-33
Canberra 15 333-3-3-
Hobart 15 33--3-33
Casey(Ant) 15 ----3-3-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 88 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22 4333 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
02 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Unsettled to Active over the
last 24 hours with minor storm levels at mid to high latitudes.
Unsettled to Active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
due to the current geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 02Mar-03Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
02 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
03 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Feb -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
across all regions. Enhanced conditions during local night for
Equatorial regions while Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions
experienced depressed MUFs during local day. Disturbed HF conditions
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 24-48 hours due to the increase in geomagnetic activity.
Expected return to normal conditions on 03Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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