[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 21 10:19:34 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Mar             22 Mar             23 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The ACE spacecraft plots show that the Solar wind has 
ranged from 470 km/s to 570 km/s over the last 24 hours and is 
presently 530 km/s. Also the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) 
Bz component fluctuated between +/-5 nT. No spots on the visible 
disk of the sun at this time. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   21234211
      Darwin               6   21123211
      Townsville          10   22234222
      Learmonth            9   21233---
      Camden               8   22224111
      Canberra             9   21234211
      Hobart               8   21224211
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--33222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   0111 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Mar     6    Quiet 
23 Mar     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: The mid to southern region of Australia again showed 
an unexpected increase in geomagnetic activity between 12-14 
UT (active levels), otherwise it was mostly quiet with unsettled 
conditions.  The increase in geomagnetic activity between 12-14 UT 
may be due to a build up and release of charged particles in the 
magnetic tail due to an elevated solar wind speed. This trend 
could continue until the solar wind returns to a normal level 
around 400 km/s. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: HF propagation may be slightly degraded in the mid latitudes 
due to unsettled to active conditions in the Earth's magnetic field 
between 12-14 UT. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Mar     -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Mar     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
22 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: The Australian region showed sporadic E (Es) during 
local day hours only. High latitudes showed ocassional spread 
F conditions and Es during the local night time hours. For more 
detail on particular regions and times go to
"www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view the ionograms. Expect 
slight depressions at low latitudes and the North Australian 
region due to very low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 496 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   121000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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